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The art of thinking clearly / Rolf Dobelli ; translated by Nicky Griffin.

by Dobelli, Rolf, 1966-

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New York : Harper, c2013.

Reasoning (Psychology)

Errors -- Psychological aspects.

Decision making.

9780062219688 (hbk.) :

0062219685 (hbk.)

xviii, 358 pages ; 22 cm

Why you should visit cemeteries : survivorship bias -- Does Harvard make you smarter? : swimmer's body illusion -- Why you see shapes in the clouds : clustering illusion -- If fifty million people say something foolish, it is still foolish : social proof -- Why you should forget the past : sunk cost fallacy -- Don't accept free drinks : reciprocity -- Beware the "special case" : confirmation bias (part 1) -- Murder your darlings : confirmation bias (part 2) -- Don't bow to authority : authority bias -- Leave your supermodel friends at home : contrast effect -- Why we prefer a wrong map to none at all : availability bias -- Why "no pain, no gain" should set alarm bells ringing : the it'll-get-worse-before-it-gets-better fallacy -- Even true stories are fairy tales : story bias -- Why you should keep a diary : hindsight bias -- Why you systematically overestimate your knowledge and abilities : overconfidence effect -- Don't take news anchors seriously : chauffeur knowledge -- You control less than you think : illusion of control -- Never pay your lawyer by the hour : incentive super-response tendency -- The dubious efficacy of doctors, consultants, and psychotherapists : regression to mean -- Never judge a decision by its outcome : outcome bias -- Less is more : paradox of choice -- You like me, you really, really like me : liking bias -- Don't cling to things : endowment effect -- The inevitability of unlikely events : coincidence -- The calamity of conformity : groupthink -- Why you'll soon be playing mega trillions : neglect of probability -- Why the last cookie in the jar makes your mouth water : scarcity error -- When you hear hoofbeats, don't expect a zebra : base-rate neglect -- Why the "balancing force of the universe" is baloney : gambler's fallacy -- Why the wheel of fortune makes our heads spin : the anchor -- How to relieve people of their millions : induction -- Why evil is more striking than good : loss aversion -- Why teams are lazy : social loafing -- Stumped by a sheet of paper : exponential growth -- Curb your enthusiasm : winner's curse -- Never ask a writer if the novel is autobiographical : fundamental attribution error -- Why you shouldn't believe in the stork : false causality -- Why attractive people climb the career ladder more quickly : halo effect -- Congratulations! you've won Russian roulette : alternative paths -- False prophets : forecast illusion -- The deception of specific cases : conjunction fallacy -- It's not what you say, but how you say it : framing -- Why watching and waiting is torture : action bias -- Why you are either the solution--or the problem : omission bias -- Don't blame me : self-serving bias -- Be careful what you wish for : hedonic treadmill -- Do not marvel at your existence : self-selection bias -- Why experience can damage your judgment : association bias -- Be wary when things get off to a great start : beginner's luck -- Sweet little lies : cognitive dissonance -- Live each day as if it were your last--but only on Sundays : hyperbolic discounting -- Any lame excuse : "because" justification -- Decide better--decide less : decision fatigue -- Would you wear Hitler's sweater? : contagion bias -- Why there is no such thing as an average war : the problem with averages -- How bonuses destroy motivation : motivation crowding -- If you have nothing to say, say nothing : twaddle tendency -- How to increase the average IQ of two states : Will Rogers phenomenon -- If you have an enemy, give him information : information bias -- Hurts so good : effort justification -- Why small things loom large : the law of small numbers -- Handle with care : expectations -- Speed traps ahead! : simple logic -- How to expose a charlatan : Forer effect -- Volunteer work is for the birds : volunteer's folly -- Why you are a slave to your emotions : affect heuristic -- Be your own heretic : introspection illusion -- Why you should set fire to your ships : inability to close doors -- Disregard the brand new : neomania -- Why propaganda works : sleeper effect -- Why it's never just a two-horse race : alternative blindness -- Why we take aim at young guns : social comparison bias -- Why first impressions are deceiving : primacy and recency effects -- Why you can't beat homemade : not-invented-here syndrome -- How to profit from the implausible : the black swan -- Knowledge is nontransferable : domain dependence -- The myth of like-mindedness : false-consensus effect -- You were right all along : falsification of history -- Why you identify with your football team : in-group out-group bias -- The difference between risk and uncertainty : ambiguity aversion -- Why you go with the status quo : default effect -- Why "last chances" make us panic : fear of regret -- How eye-catching details render us blind : salience effect -- Why money is not naked : house-money effect -- Why New Year's resolutions don't work : procrastination -- Build your own castle : envy -- Why you prefer novels to statistics : personification -- You have no idea what you are overlooking : illusion of attention -- Hot air : strategic misrepresentation -- Where's the off switch? : overthinking -- Why you take on too much : planning fallacy -- Those wielding hammers see only nails : déformation professionnelle -- Mission accomplished : Zeigarnik effect -- The boat matters more than the rowing : illusion of skill -- Why checklists deceive you : feature-positive effect -- Drawing the bull's eye around the arrow : cherry picking -- The Stone Age hunt for scapegoats : fallacy of the single cause -- Why speed demons appear to be safer drivers : intention-to-treat error -- Why you shouldn't read the news : news illusion.

An exploration of human reasoning reveals how to recognize and avoid simple errors in our day-to-day thinking in order to transform the decision-making process.

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